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January 2nd, 2008 at 9:00 pm

Correcting a Mistake AND a Reminder of the Literal Insignificance of Iowa’s Caucuses

in: Education, Election 2008, Opinion, Presidential Candidates

The other day I wrote a post called “How Much Does Iowa Really Mean Anyway?” which included an error which I was called on. I quickly struck through the inaccuracy (on Gribbit’s Word) without explaining.

I said, “In 2004 John Kerry didn’t do well in Iowa or New Hampshire” which isn’t accurate. Kerry actually won both states. But what I should have said, and the truth is, going into both races Kerry wasn’t favored. That information actually better illustrates my point. The fact that you are leading in the polls going into ANY race does not mean that you will win. And in Presidential politics, it may mean that you are likely to lose. Need I remind people of the failure in exit polling in the 2000 election?

Iowa is relatively insignificant in the grand scheme of things nationally. The momentum that the Caucuses used to garner the winner is long in the past now. In the accelerated manner in which this Presidential cycle is being conducted, 5 days just isn’t enough to gain any sort of momentum going into New Hampshire.

I stand by my statements regarding the obsolete situation of a staggered primary season. All Iowa will do is waste campaign money on a race that will not give the winner any sort of advantage on the next race. For that matter, New Hampshire is a bust as well. We will see who stands out and who benefits from either if and only if the winners of Iowa and New Hampshire have any momentum and finish well in South Carolina. That will be the race that pushes the eventual Nominee, whether HE, yes I said HE, win in South Carolina or not

Note:

The original post is lost forever. These are my revised thoughts on the matter.

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