Clinton Eyeing Mini Tuesday; Huckster Trails Badly

Mini Tuesday? Yes Mini Tuesday. If February 5th was Super “Duper” Tuesday because over 20 primary contests were held on that day, one can make the argument that March 4th will be Mini Tuesday. Just a few contests but for the Democrats a huge significance.

The key states of Ohio and Texas hold their primaries on Mini Tuesday. Also holding primaries are the states of Vermont and Rhode Island. Ohio has 161 delegates on the Democrat side, 88 on the Republican. Texas has 228 for the Dems and 140 for the Republicans. Vermont 23 and Rhode Island 32 on the Dems side, 17 and 20 respectively on the Republican side. Hillary needs as many Ohio and Texas delegates as possible to contain Obama.

Because the Dems distribute their delegates proportionately according to popular vote by state, this may be a situation of high hopes for Clinton. Obama can successfully stave off losing the lead to Clinton if he can keep it close in both states where Clinton is currently leading.

In Ohio, Clinton leads Obama 51 – 37% respectively. If Obama can close the gap in the next 17 days Clinton may be in trouble in my home state of Ohio. In Texas, Clinton also leads Obama 54 – 38% respectively. Again, Obama has 17 days to close that gap. If he cannot close the gap in these two key states in the next 17 days (that’s a long time), then he will prove that he cannot win in November.

Because of the proportional delegate distribution, the states of Vermont and Rhode Island mean little in the quest for the Democrat Nomination.

In the Republican Quest, Mike “the Huckster” Huckabee trails Juan MexiCain in Ohio by 17 points (33 – 50% respectively). That means he’s got to make up at least one point per day to make Ohio a contest. In the Texas race, MexiCain leads Huckster 45 – 37% (That’s 9 points). Huckster is in a position to deny MexiCain 140 delegates should he convince enough people to vote against amnesty. He’s got some work to do but I’m not sure how he’s going to get it done from the Caymans.

Remember campers, polls have been consistently wrong this election cycle. Why? I’m not sure. I’m still using the one poll that seems to have been closest all cycle long – Rasmussen Reports.

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