Another State Shifts From Dem to Toss-Up

New Hampshire shifts from the “Leans Democrat” category to “Toss-Up” according to the latest from the Rasmussen Reports “Election 2008: Electoral College Update“.

From Rasmussen Reports:

Democrats continue to lead in states with 190 Electoral College Votes while Republicans are favored in states with 189 Votes. State with 104 Votes are “leaners,” and states with 55 Votes are Toss-Ups (see recent daily results). A month ago, the Democrats led 238-189. Since then, John McCain wrapped up the GOP nomination, the Democratic slugfest between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton has continued, and several states have shifted away from the Democrats in the Electoral College projections.

When “leaners” are added to the total, the Democrats now lead with 243 Electoral Votes to 240 for the GOP. A month ago, the Democrats led 284-229. A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House. Leaners are states that narrowly lean to one party or the other at this time but remain competitive. See a summary of recent polls and Rasmussen Market expectations for key states in the Electoral College showdown.

Today’s shift of New Hampshire to the Toss-Up column comes on top of yesterday’s shift moving Wisconsin from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic. That change was based upon new polling showing John McCain and Barack Obama essentially tied while McCain enjoys a solid lead over Hillary Clinton. Also, this past week, a Missouri poll shifted that state from Toss-Up status to Leans Republican. New polling from Virginia and Oregon had no impact on the projections.

The trend will likely continue as more Democrats become disenchanted with the in-fighting on the left. Some won’t vote at all others will defect in the General. This could be a very happy year for the GOP

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