April 10th, 2008 at 3:14 pm

McCain Closes Gap According to AP/Ipsos Poll

in: Election 2008, Opinion, Presidential Candidates

Regular readers of this blog will understand that I only watch one poll. I only rely on data collected and reported by Rasmussen Reports.

That said, however, new Associated Press/Ipsos polling indicates that John McCain has closed the more than 10 point gap between he and Illinois Senator Barack Hussein Obama.

From Breitbart.com:

Republican Sen. John McCain has erased Sen. Barack Obama’s 10-point advantage in a head-to-head matchup, leaving him essentially tied with both Democratic candidates in an Associated Press-Ipsos national poll released Thursday.

The survey showed the extended Democratic primary campaign creating divisions among supporters of Obama and rival Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and suggests a tight race for the presidency in November no matter which Democrat becomes the nominee.

McCain is benefiting from a bounce since he clinched the GOP nomination a month ago. The four-term Arizona senator has moved up in matchups with each of the Democratic candidates, particularly Obama.

An AP-Ipsos poll taken in late February had Obama leading McCain 51-41 percent. The current survey, conducted April 7-9, had them at 45 percent each. McCain leads Obama among men, whites, Southerners, married women and independents.

Clinton led McCain, 48-43 percent, in February. The latest survey showed the New York senator with 48 percent support to McCain’s 45 percent. Factoring in the poll’s margin of error of 3.1 percentage points, Clinton and McCain are statistically tied.

You can take all the national polls you want, but the real test is in the state by state match-ups in key states. Rasmussen classifies states as Safely Democrat, Likely Democrat, Leans Democrat, Toss-up, Leans Republican, Likely Republican, and Safely Republican. Discounting the Safely and Likely states, the key states are in the Leans and Toss-up categories. Those states according to Rasmussen Reports are (with electoral votes):

Leans Democratic: Iowa (7), Minnesota (10), New Mexico (5), Pennsylvania (21) and Wisconsin (10).

Toss-Up: Colorado (9), Michigan (17), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), and Ohio (20).

Leans Republican: Florida (27), Missouri (11), Virginia (13).

The Toss-up states may have the most clout. In Rasmussen’s most recent polling in those states there is a picture forming.

By Percentage-

    Colorado (9):

    McCain v Obama: 46-46
    McCAin v Clinton: 52-38

    Michigan (17):

    McCain v Obama: 43-42
    McCain v Clinton: 45-42

    Nevada (5):

    McCain v Obama: 41-45
    McCain v Clinton: 43-44

    New Hampshire(4):

    McCain v Obama: 46-43
    McCain v Clinton: 47-41

    Ohio(20):

    McCain v Obama: 47-40
    McCain v Clinton: 47-42

There are 55 electoral votes in the Toss-Up states alone and with only counting the Safely and Likely states, the Democrats are only leading Republicans by 1 electoral vote at 190-189. It requires 270 electoral votes in order to win the Presidency. Those 55 votes may be the most key votes in the electoral college. Should the vote go the way of this post, McCain has the majority of those votes. Combine that with some possible defections in the Leans category, and McCain is in a much better position than polls like the AP/Ipsos poll suggests.

Leans Democrat states: Iowa (7), Minnesota (10), New Mexico (5), Pennsylvania (21) and Wisconsin (10).

Leans Republican: Florida (27), Missouri (11), Virginia (13).

According to Rasmussen:

When “leaners” are added to the total, the Democrats now lead with 243 Electoral Votes to 240 for the GOP.

If you count the Toss-up votes above polling for McCain, The 30 votes needed are there. 41 actually.

What is needed is active campaigning by McCain in Iowa (7), Minnesota (10), New Mexico (5), Pennsylvania (21) and Wisconsin (10). Currently McCain is leading Obama by 1% and Clinton by 2% in Pennsylvania. He’s leading Clinton in the remainder of the states but trials Obama.

As we get closer to the last set of primaries, we may see those numbers increase for McCain and some shifting in states like Pennsylvania with their 21 electoral votes.

A word to my Conservative colleagues who say they cannot vote for McCain.

If you stay home the damage that would be caused by your not voting may be irreversible. Can you live with that?

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