Dem-Cong In Trouble

All year we’ve been hearing that this is a Democrat year. Why? Because the news media which is in the bag for the Dems say so? That’s the perception that I’m living under.

Each election cycle, we hear the same ‘ol BS that the Dems are going to take control. The people are fed up with Republicans. But it never plays out as dire as “they” say. This year seems to be swinging back the other way already.

In a new Gallup Poll of registered voters suggests that the Dems may only slightly maintain control of Congress. That is a far cry from the pie in the sky hopes that the Communists Democrats were claiming just a couple of days ago.

Senate Dems bragged that they may pick up as many as 12 seats. House Dems were suggesting as many as 20. But the facts may be playing out much to Democrat dismay.

According to Gallup…

A potential shift in fortunes for the Republicans in Congress is seen in the latest USA Today/Gallup survey, with the Democrats now leading the Republicans by just 3 percentage points, 48% to 45%, in voters’ “generic ballot” preferences for Congress. This is down from consistent double-digit Democratic leads seen on this measure over the past year.

As is true for the current structure of voting preferences for president, Democratic voters are nearly uniform in their support for the Democratic candidate in their congressional districts (92%), Republican voters are nearly uniform in their support for the Republican candidate (94%), and independents are closely split, with 44% backing the Democrat and 40% the Republican.

The positive impact of the GOP convention on polling indicators of Republican strength is further seen in the operation of Gallup’s “likely voter” model in this survey. Republicans, who are now much more enthused about the 2008 election than they were prior to the convention, show heightened interest in voting, and thus outscore Democrats in apparent likelihood to vote in November. As a result, Republican candidates now lead Democratic candidates among likely voters by 5 percentage points, 50% to 45%.

If these numbers are sustained through Election Day — a big if — Republicans could be expected to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives. emphasis mine

It would be incredibly positive for the Democrats should every registered voter show up to the polls on November 4th and casts a Democrat vote. But reality is, they don’t.

Gallup has an explanation for why the Dems numbers are dropping…

The new USA Today/Gallup measurement of generic ballot preferences for Congress casts some doubt on the previously assumed inevitability of the Democrats’ maintaining control of Congress.

Until now, the dark shadow cast by George W. Bush’s widespread unpopularity has suppressed Republican Party identification nationwide, as well as voters’ willingness to support the Republican candidate running for Congress in their district.

Now that the symbolic leadership of the party is shifting away from Bush and toward the suddenly popular Republican presidential ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin, things may be changing. This shrinks Bush’s shadow over the Republicans, revealing more of the Democrats’ own shadow stemming from high disapproval of Congress. The key question is how much of this is temporary because of the tremendous bounce in support for the Republicans on many dimensions coming right off of their convention. The degree to which the Republican bounce is sustained, rather than dissipates, in the weeks ahead will determine whether the 2008 race for Congress could in fact be highly competitive, rather than a Democratic sweep. emphasis mine

Americans are tired of the revenge politics of the Democrats. Don’t know what I’m talking about? Ok, here are a couple of examples.

Since coming to power, the Do-Nothing Dem-Cong has launched hundreds of probes into the Bush White House seeking evidence for which they can bring Articles of Impeachment against him. Why? Revenge for the impeachment of Slick Billy Bob Bubba.

When Sarah Palin was named John McCain’s running mate, the Obama campaign has been on a quest to portray Palin as grossly unqualified for the position in an effort to get her dropped from the ticket. Why? Because of what happened in 1972.

During the ‘72 election, George McGovern’s running mate Thomas Eagleton was found to have a previously undisclosed bout with mental illness forcing him from the ticket. It seems that Eagleton underwent electroshock therapy in the 1960s. McGovern never recovered.

Revenge is the key to Democrat thinking. And it is revenge that will cost them their precious majority.

The irony now is Joe Biden. Biden by his own admission is not the most qualified to be the Democrat running mate. He admitted the other day that Hillary Clinton would have been a better choice. If Biden drops from the ticket, Obama can blame the Eagleton affect for his loss in November.

The bottom line is the Dem-Cong is not likely to achieve the gains they are hoping for in November. It is more likely that they’ll either maintain a slim majority OR lose control to Republicans.

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